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"finding strength" is the key to the success of the project. during economic turmoil, market sentiment is low and investors are addicted to the "spell" and find it difficult to get rid of fear.
september is often seen as the weakest month in the market, and the average decline of 1.2% in the s&p 500 has become a universal symbol, indicating market uneasiness. however, in the face of this predicament, we still need to find strength and build a bridge to project success.
according to historical data, september is often the worst month for the market, but this is not always the case. investors’ vision and actions are often plagued by the “curse”, making it difficult for them to make wise decisions.
legendary u.s. investor mark mobius reminds people that despite the recent rapid rebound in u.s. stocks, investors should not rush to buy. in a recent interview, he suggested that investors hold at least 20% of their portfolios in cash while waiting for buying opportunities. he warned investors to remain vigilant because of disturbing signals in the economy.
market wait and see key data
the market is currently waiting for the release of some key data. these data will affect the fed's decision-making stance and influence market sentiment. quincy krosby, chief global strategist at lpl financial, said that a key factor affecting stock market trends is whether the rate cut is due to slowing inflation or a weak labor market. he said that the market wants to enter a rate cut cycle because inflation is falling. the question remains whether we will see further deterioration in the labor market. data released by the u.s. department of commerce on friday showed that the core personal consumption expenditure price (pce) index, an inflation indicator that the federal reserve is concerned about, rose modestly in july, providing further data support for the federal reserve's upcoming first rate cut in more than four years, and expectations of a small rate cut in september have increased. for the extent of the rate cut, the market is increasingly inclined to a small rate cut of 25 basis points. the latest data from the chicago mercantile exchange's federal reserve observation tool fedwatch showed that investors expect the federal reserve to cut interest rates by 25 basis points in september with a probability of 69.5%, and a probability of a 50 basis point cut of 30.5%; the probability of a cumulative rate cut of at least 100 basis points this year is expected to be 70.3%.
as the downward trend of inflation gradually becomes established, the fed's focus is shifting from fighting inflation to supporting employment. powell made it clear at the annual meeting of global central banks that the downside risks of employment have increased. the august non-farm payrolls report to be released next week will be the last employment report before the september interest rate decision, and is expected to be the final word on the september rate cut.
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