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miller believes that the sharp contrast between putin's "modern" image 20 years ago and his aggressive actions today shows that power, glory and control are far more important driving forces for many leaders than money. similarly, the development of countries and societies is often driven by the impulses of "modern people" and the desire for power, glory and control. miller calls such factors "unquantifiable factors" and points out that these factors will have a significant impact on the future.

he believes that the rhyme of history is an important direction to think about. when the first world war broke out in 1914, the rapid development of science and technology also led to the outbreak of war. similarly, the computing technology revolution in the 1980s and 1990s also promoted economic and social development and provided new opportunities for the future.

miller divides today's world into three key changes:

1. ai technology is developing rapidly: ai has become a hot topic and will continue to influence future technological development.2. intensified geopolitical competition: international geopolitical competition is intensifying, and competition among countries for resources and territory is rapidly escalating.3. politicized economy: international economic life is increasingly influenced by political factors, which makes political risks and economic risks intertwined.

miller points out that these changes may bring about huge risks, and historians can provide us with a clearer perspective.