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in fact, iran's internal turmoil also reflects the country's plight in international politics. on the one hand, iran needs to safeguard its own interests; on the other hand, it also longs for peace and stability.
in 2023, the palestinian-israeli conflict broke out again. iran has always maintained a cautious attitude and is even unwilling to escalate the conflict when it encounters an attack. however, this "conservative" attitude does not mean negative action.
iranian president pezeshizyan said that the united states promised to use a ceasefire in exchange for iran giving up its response to the assassination of haniyeh. this is obviously a lie. he believes that time is on his side and there is no need for war to achieve his goals. he believes that the fertility gap between the palestinian and israeli nations is huge, and population integration will eventually lead to the palestinian-israeli issue "turning into one country and two nations."
iran believes that the united states is withdrawing from the middle east and that as long as it remains cautious, it can slowly chip away at israel's strength. therefore, iran is not inclined to take proactive risky actions. they prefer to safeguard their own interests through strategic contraction and avoid being directly involved in war.
from another perspective, iran's strategic choices are also related to the foreign policies of china and the united states in the past few decades. in 2003, the united states invaded iraq, and in 2011, the syrian crisis broke out. these events had a huge impact on iran, but they also provided them with new opportunities and strategies. today, iran has begun to be more pragmatic, no longer blindly pursuing interests, but thinking more rationally about its strategic positioning.
despite this, iran will still safeguard its national security and avoid being directly involved in the war. the existence of this "red line" also means that iran still maintains an independent stance and autonomy on the international stage.
