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some experts believe that with economic recovery and policy intervention, the volatility of long-term bonds will ease. they predict that the intensity of fiscal policies will continue to increase, especially national special treasury bonds and local government special bonds. the implementation of these policies is expected to have a positive impact on the bond market.

however, some scholars pointed out that despite the strong fiscal policy, the market is still in an interest rate cutting cycle and short-term risks still exist. they believe that the top of the 10-year and 30-year treasury bonds has been obvious, so a cautious investment strategy is needed.

regarding the adjustment direction of long-term bonds, some experts believe that with the implementation of policies and the gradual improvement of the economic environment, the upward risks of long-term bonds are controllable. they recommended that investors make moderate allocations during market fluctuations and wait for more opportunities to increase allocations.

however, cost constraints from insurance companies and redemption pressure from investors remain important considerations. some analysts pointed out that insurance companies' demand for long-term debt may be more important than the impact of redemption feedback from financial management and funds. they believe that the insurance industry has gradually turned to the treasury bond market in terms of investment, and they are expected to continue to increase the proportion of treasury bond holdings in the future.

changes in policy and market environment are important factors in bond market trends, and it is necessary to pay attention to government actions and investor behavior.